RTCrawford's Weblog

I don't make this stuff up. I'm not that smart.

Archive for October 2008

Sears Update — 10/20/08

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On one of the message boards, my earlier call of a likely short squeeze for the stock was challenged.  This follows the recent down-turn in the market and the drubbing of this stock in particular.

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Written by rcrawford

October 21, 2008 at 1:43 am

Posted in General

Update on the Market and Other Musings — 10/18/08

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It has been two weeks since my last update on this blog. Since then, the market has undergone gyrations that are unprecedented. While I can’t imagine that anyone is following this blog closely enough to mirror my investments, doing so would have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 – even in this dramatic environment. Since the market highs of October 2007, my portfolio is down 12.43% versus the S&P 500s decline of just under 40%. This is largely due to the recommended short position (of the S&P 500), but the long positions in my portfolio have strongly contributed to these favorable results, as well. Even during a market crash, owning value stocks is its own reward.

With this update, I would like to address several new items at this point in the market’s life.  Longer than most postings, it looks at the current investing environment, considers international opportunities (first-world and emerging-market), addresses the Bretton Woods II proposal, considers the regulatory pedullum shift, provides a loose model for identifying winning and losing markets in the future, and ends with a non-partisan plea for political change in the US.

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Written by rcrawford

October 19, 2008 at 10:51 am

The Yaht Club and The Rehab Walker

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A couple of weeks ago, I spent a long weekend in New York — something I try to do a couple times each year.  My friends and the circle they inhabit are largely Wall Streeters.  The story of the last visit was different than prior visits.  Where the normal topic of conversation at parties and social gatherings would typically focus on the economy and the investments world, it was largely absent — almost entirely absent.  This was the weekend when Lehman failed, AIG was the focus of high-powered meetings seeking a solution that would eventually culminate in its dismemberment, rumors concerning Merrill heated-up anew, and Washington Mutual was included among the whispered names of firms in peril.  This was the back story, where the problems confronting each were understood by all, even if the financial press was not yet reporting it (beyond Lehman, at least).

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Written by rcrawford

October 5, 2008 at 11:24 pm

Posted in General, Investments